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Being humans, we often fool ourselves, both in business and in our personal lives. If we are aware of thinking traps, we are less likely to fall into them.
One thinking trap is the "Gambler's Fallacy".
🤖 Gambler's Fallacyis the belief that randomness will work in our favour, even though random event don't favour anyone.
📈 1. Stock Market Investing: After several months of market losses, an investor assumes the market is “due for a rebound,” and increases investment risk — ignoring the fact that markets move based on fundamentals, not luck or streaks.
💰 2. Sales Performance: A sales manager believes that after a few poor quarters, the next one must be better “to even things out.” They may relax standards or overcommit budgets, expecting an automatic turnaround.
🏢 3. Startup Funding: An entrepreneur assumes that because several startups in their space have recently failed, theirs is “more likely to succeed now.” In reality, each company’s success depends on strategy and execution, not on the outcomes of others.
📊 4. Customer Wins & Losses: A business development team assumes they’re “due for a big client win” after losing several pitches — leading to overconfidence and poor preparation.
💼 5. Hiring Decisions: A recruiter thinks, “We’ve had three bad hires in a row, so this next one must be great,” instead of improving the hiring process or evaluation criteria.
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✅ Questions to ask yourself:
🤔 Am I assuming results will “balance out” instead of analyzing actual causes and data?
📉 Do I believe a poor performance streak guarantees improvement, or am I addressing the root issues?
📊 Am I expecting a trend to reverse just because it has continued for a while, without evidence of change?
🎯 Am I relying on intuition or “luck” instead of objective analysis and probability?
🧠 Have I checked whether each decision or event is truly independent, or am I linking unrelated outcomes in my reasoning?
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